專訪龍源電力總經理：風電業必須做出三大轉變

局部地區存在的地方保護主義、CDM機制的不完善，仍然讓風電企業如骨鯁喉。

　　作為亞洲最大風電企業，龍源電力(00916.HK)的每一個舉動幾乎都影響著國內電力尤其是風電產業的發展。據統計截至2010年11月底，龍源電力已擁有控股子公司112家，其中風電公司97家，新能源項目遍佈全國；發電裝機容量達到7418兆瓦，其中風電5514兆瓦。

　　在中國現有的風電場中，每四台風機中就有一台印著“龍源風電”的標識。龍源電力所屬風電場主要分佈于中國東北、內蒙古、新疆、甘肅、河北、東南沿海等風力資源豐富地區，覆蓋中國六大千萬千瓦級風電基地。

　　正是這樣一個公司，此前登陸香港聯交所主板市場時，曾在香港乃至國際資本市場掀起了一股追捧熱潮。龍源電力如何看待目前中國風電市場？

　　風電新格局

　　CEI：從目前的情況來看，整個風電行業的發展呈現了哪些新特點？你對目前國內的風機製造商有哪些忠告？

　　謝長軍：對於未來的形勢，我歸納了幾句話：第一句是世界風電繼續保持快速發展。根據世界風能理事會的最新統計，2010年全球風電新增裝機容量是3580萬千瓦，累計是1.94億千瓦，應該說增長率超過了20%，還是很快的。

　　第二句話，世界風電格局出現新的變化，2010年新增的裝機容量並不是來自於傳統的風電市場，而是來自於飛速增長的中國市場及其他亞洲市場。美國和歐洲已經放緩。

　　第三句話，風電機組向大型化、智慧化發展。單機容量逐步增大已成為國際風電市場發展的必然趨勢。目前歐美等國外主力機型是2～3兆瓦的，國內主力機型是1.5兆瓦的，2010年全世界新裝機組的平均單機容量為2兆瓦左右(2009年1.6兆瓦)，隨著海上風電的迅速發展，單機容量為3～6兆瓦的風電機組已經開始商業化運營。

　　第四句話，CDM(清潔發展機制)機制到期後存在不確定性。雖然在目前的電價制定思路中，本來沒有將CDM項目收益考慮在內，但是，在激烈的風電開發競爭面前，許多風電開發商都將CDM收益作為彌補資源評價可靠性、設備品質、運營維護能力等不足所帶來損失的重要途徑。因而，2012年後CDM機制的不確定性，必將影響開發商的積極性。

　　風電產業存在的四個問題

　　CEI：在你看來，中國風電產業現在除了面臨並網難、風機品質問題之外，還存在哪些主要的問題？

　　謝長軍：我認為，中國風電產業還存在幾個問題。首先就是風電設備製造業產能過剩問題凸顯。比如，2010年全國新增風電裝機為2000萬千瓦，僅華銳、金風、東汽、聯合動力、明陽等五家企業的產能就超過上述容量。另外，丹麥維斯塔斯、西班牙歌美颯、美國GE等國際風機製造業巨頭紛紛在中國建立生產基地，市場競爭之激烈前所未有。

　　第二，人才匱乏是制約我國風電產業核心競爭力的關鍵。由於我國風電發展過快，各類設計、製造、風資源評價、檢測認證等技術人才奇缺，尚未建立長期的人才培養和人才引進戰略機制。現在只有極少數高校設置相關專業，很多企業都只是通過實踐來培養人才。

　　第三，局部地區存在地方保護主義。由於風電開發對拉動就業、增加稅收的作用不如風電設備製造企業明顯，不少地方政府提出了“資源換市場、市場促發展”的思路，要求風電開發企業優先使用本地生產的風電機組，或者直接與設備製造廠家捆綁引入，這一定程度上促使風電設備製造產業形成了低水準重復建設的不良局面。第四，可再生能源基金延後支付影響當期現金回收。目前風電電價補貼收入一般延後6~12個月支付，使風電企業形成較大的應收賬款，不利於企業合理安排資金，影響企業經營效益。

　　CEI：風電產業前幾年小跑前進，現在突然慢下來了。你分析是什麼原因？

　　謝長軍：應該說前幾年沒什麼問題。因為每年新增1000多萬千瓦的風電裝機容量在中國這樣一個大的國家也是可以的，但是因為風電發展快了，電網的建設跟不上，嚴重滯後，這樣導致有些風電在建成之後不能及時發電。現在電網正在建設一些大的輸送線路，像去年甘肅酒泉已經建成了750千伏的輸電線路，400多萬千伏的電可以送出來。這個問題兩三年之後可能會得到解決。


5年後風電再次加速

　　CEI：作為亞洲最大的設備供應商，2011年龍源電力在市場開發上的策略上有哪些變化？

　　謝長軍：現在很多中國發電企業發展得比較快，但現在電網的制約還比較嚴重。所以，我們2011年還是投產200萬千瓦，開發的策略是從一些高度集中地區向一些分散地區轉移。2011年投產的項目可能將涉及16個省區。我們會分散開發，不會集中在一處開發，這樣對我們未來的發展可能都會有好處。同時，我認為陸地風電資源有限，所以就開始在海上建設項目，現在的試點主要還在江蘇。目前在天津建了兩個5萬項目，這些是為下一步做海上風電準備。

　　CEI：你曾表示，中國的風電行業需要實現“三個轉變”，這三個轉變分別是指什麼？

　　謝長軍：對於我國風電行業未來發展的方向，我認為，需要進行三個轉變：第一，從追求發展速度向追求發展品質轉變。現在風電產業的發展速度我們是有目共睹的，但是風機品質等問題是我們必須正視的問題。第二，從追求裝機容量向追求風電電量轉變。我們說國內的裝機容量為4300萬，4300萬乘以2200小時，那就是中國風機電電量總數了，如果沒有這個數，那就不對。第三，從集中大規模開發向大規模、分散開發相結合轉變。如何理解，就是現有七大風電生產基地，有4個都開始限電了。現在應該是基地建設和分散建設相結合，有些內陸城市，如甘肅酒泉還要啟動二期，我真得歡迎，因為這樣我會有項目可做，但是二期啟動了，一期發電是否能夠全部輸送出去，還很令人擔心。

GE Eyes Green Datacenters With $520 Million Acquisition

Welcome Lineage Power Holdings to the GE family. As we warned you, green IT will be a massive market in 2011.
General Electric today said it will spend $520 million to acquire Lineage Power Holdings, a company that specializes in fine-tuning power for servers, storage devices and other equipment inside datacenters.

GE bought the company from the Gores Group. Lineage pulled in $450 million of revenue in 2010.

Lineage's products, in a nutshell, take high-voltage AC power from the grid and turn it into steady streams of power for datacenters. The portfolio includes AC-DC converters, DC-DC converters, equipment for DC datacenters and other components.

Green IT stands as one of the largest potential markets in clean energy and efficiency. Datacenters only account for approximately 2 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Utilities, however, are in many parts of the country capping the power that datacenters can buy. This puts banks and web companies like Google in an uncomfortable position: either don't grow your business or find ways to squeeze out more calculations per watt.

As a result, green datacenter equipment isn't an option like solar panels or fuel cells might be. It has become a necessity. Mike Dauber at Battery Ventures points out that one company recently calculated that to build its dream datacenter, it would have to build it next door to the Hoover Dam to get enough power.

Some of the ideas out there include more efficient cooling and better monitoring of weather conditions inside datacenters (SynapSense) application shifting (Power Assure) liquid cooling (IBM), better power supplies (Google) switching from Intel processors to ARM processors (Calxeda, Freescale, Marvell, Nvidia), more efficient servers that use Intel's Atom processors for phones (SeaMicro), putting datacenters in caves (Helsinki has a datacenter in a WWII-era bomb shelter) and LED lights (Redwood Systems). (I have the hots for this subject; have you noticed?)

One of the more novel ideas: running datacenters completely on DC. In the usual scenario, power is converted from AC to DC and vice-versa, several times before it actually performs any work in the server. Each conversion wastes power. In a DC datacenter, high voltage AC gets converted at the front door, so to speak, and then distributed and consumed as high (or low) voltage DC thereafter. Both Validus DC Systems and Nextek Power Systems have equipment for running datacenters and buildings on DC.

Lineage has more efficient AC-DC equipment, as well as DC equipment, so it will give GE a wide variety of options.

Who might get bought next? Rumors have swirled around Validus, which works with GE, IBM, and Oracle (via Sun). Nextek gets visitors regularly from companies and government officials in Asia. And the rest of those guys above are somewhat attractive, too.

Like ABB and Siemens, GE has been snapping up acquisitions. Other recent buys include Dressner, an infrastructure company, and Wellstream Holdings, an industrial pipe maker.

AC or DC? Should We Switch Our Electric Current?

Optimization Michael Kanellos: December 16, 2010 AC or DC? Should We Switch Our Electric Current?
The world runs on AC. Most of the stuff you own runs on DC. Can we all speak the same language?

Direct current didn’t go away. It just went underground.

In 1893, George Westinghouse won the “war of currents” over Thomas Edison and the decision paved the way for electricity to conquer the globe. However, it also created a conflict that has been growing ever since.

Although AC remains the ruling standard transmission, most devices that consume electricity -- cars, planes, light rail systems, computers, consumer electronics, and pretty much anything with a battery -- actually run on DC.

“The old telephone system always worked,” said Brian Fortenberry, a program manager at the Electric Power Research Institute, citing another DC success story. “The reliability is exceptional.”

Solar panels and fuel cells, meanwhile, natively produce DC power.

To pave over the mismatch, electricity is converted from AC to DC and vice-versa, often several times, before it gets consumed. In data centers, AC power gets converted to DC by an uninterruptable power supply, which reconverts it to AC before sending it to the servers, which reconvert it to DC. Each conversion results in losses. The multiple conversions also boost the number of times power has to be stepped from a high to lower voltages.

In buildings, DC power from solar panels becomes AC in an inverter, and DC again when it gets to LED lights. The heat coming off your notebook brick? The waste product of an AC-DC conversion.

Thanks to advances in power electronics, tremendous amounts of power could be saved by curbing these conversions. Validus DC Systems has created a system that converts AC into DC at the data center door and then uses DC throughout the building, effectively turning the data center into a DC microgrid. General Electric, IBM and Sun have partnered with the company.

A recent Duke University test showed that DC data centers consume 15 percent less power. Others peg the potential savings at closer to 30 percent.

As an added bonus, making a data center a DC island reduces the number of necessary components: that boosts reliability, cuts costs and increases the number of computers that can fit in a room, according to James Coakley, CEO of Power Loft Services, which designs energy-efficient data centers.

“The greater number of devices between a power source and a computer, the greater number of opportunities for failure,” he said.

Meanwhile, Nextek Power Systems and conglomerates like Panasonic and Sharp are studying ways to bring DC to commercial buildings or homes so solar panels could directly power appliances or electric cars. A 380-volt DC charger can charge an electric car in 10 minutes, said Liang Downey, director of digital applications. A 220-volt AC charger needs five hours.

Even transcontinental DC is on the way: over 145 high voltage direct current (HVDC) projects are underway in China, Texas and elsewhere to bring DC straight from wind farms to urban DC microgrids.

Critics, though, note that power supplies have continued to become more efficient over time. Hybrid buildings also create potential headaches and confusion for tenants and homeowners. AC works everywhere, and that’s a big advantage.

But with policymakers and corporate customers seeking out any way possible to reduce power consumption, going back to the past has a lot of appeal.

Voltage Conservation, Cellular Big Issues for Grid in 2011

Infrastructure/AMI Michael Kanellos: December 20, 2010 Voltage Conservation, Cellular Big Issues for Grid in 2011
The IPO quiet period is over. We speak to Mark Munday, CEO of Elster Solutions.

One of the next big opportunities in smart grid will revolve around curing substation blindness.

Reducing voltages on transmission lines by 6 percent to 8 percent with the help of networking could result in power savings of 4 percent to 6 percent “all day long, 24 hours a day, seven days a week,” said Mark Munday, CEO of Elster Solutions, the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) giant, in an interview.

Nationwide, voltage reductions like this could add up to gigawatt-hours of saved electricity. Voltage conservation technology and intelligent distribution equipment, additionally, could reduce transformer overload and highlight maintenance issues before they spill over into full-blown disasters. Utilities could even begin to switch to smaller, less expensive transformers. Lower capital budgets -- and lower bills -- could follow. Toronto Hydro has already installed voltage conservation equipment.

“You will see a lot more commercial products on the distribution side,” he said.

Like a number of smart grid ideas, voltage conservation is possible because of the gap between nineteenth-century grid functionality and twenty-first century communications. Technically, utilities do not precisely know how power gets consumed in homes or businesses.

“Utilities are blind from the substation down,” he said. “But a synchronous motor needs a certain amount of voltage or they stall and burn up.”

To get around the problem, utilities crank up voltage. Smart metering, however, can feed precise information back to the utility on current consumption patterns. Ideally, then, information will let utilities operate with a better, but also thinner, buffer.

Elster is in some ways the poster boy for the new-old nature of green technology. Elster Solutions, which Munday oversees, produces gas, power and water meters, among other equipment. It works with companies like AT&T and Tropos Networks to hammer out smart grid standards. In October, it held an initial public offering.

At the same time, it’s no startup. The conglomerate began as the American Meter Company in 1836.

What else is coming?

--Utilities will begin to gravitate toward putting some of their smart grid infrastructure on public celullar networks. To date, most utilities have elected to build their own networks rather than run meter or other communications on cellular or WiMax networks.

Many have attributed this trend to the fact that utilities in most states can shovel the cost of their own network into a rate increase. Munday, however, asserts this is sort of a myth. The big concerns have been reliability and disaster preparedness.

“They want to know what the bandwidth is. With their own network, they don’t have to worry about someone calling grandma to make sure she is all right,” he said. “Utilities have a strong need for prioritization after a disaster."

“The utility infrastructure is a critical infrastructure. You see what happens when there is a blackout,” he added.

The public carriers now realize this and have begun an effort to create technologies for hardened partitions of bandwidth. The more extensive bandwidth on 4G networks will help this effort; so will IVP6.

In the end, the industry will likely see a spectrum of hybrid networks. Individual meters might link to the grid to collectors via low-bandwidth wireless mesh. The collectors then might send signals via 4G to substations with communications then rolling onto fiber networks. With some remote communities, satellite communication might be employed.

“You will have to be able to deal with multiple technologies simultaneously.

--The lines between power delivery, demand response and building and home management will continue to blur as applications get layered onto these networks. Elster, in fact, moved into energy management with the purchase of EnergyICT.

--Standards? Yes, lots of them. Interoperability will be one the goals because utilities and their customers will want to maintain compatibility with equipment over the course of decades.

--Providing the bigger picture and wider benefits of smart grid technologies also stands as a looming task for Munday and other smart grid execs in 2011 and 2012. To some sectors of the public, “smart grids” are synonymous with rate hikes, potential security breaches and electromagnetic radiation.

The benefits often get lost. Smart meters, for instance, allow utilities to shut off power, or turn it back on, remotely instead of sending a truck. Remote account management has allowed Centerpoint in Texas to cut more than 220,000 truck rolls.

Does that benefit the utility? Yes, but it can also be customer benefit. A smart meter could detect when a consumer is $50 in arrears on their bill and send a text message to alert them of the problem, Munday said.

If an account drops $100 behind, utilities could then partially cut off an account: shutting off power between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. to conserve but then letting a family have light in the evening. When the bill gets paid, power could be restored in minutes, he said.

It would beat being permanently plunged into darkness.

“All of this is about the consumer. If we don’t approach it that way, we are going to continue to see the problems that we’ve seen,” he said.

ABB Plunks $4.2 Billion Into Motors, GM Goes On Hiring Spree, and More

ABB is at it again.

The Swiss equipment giant today said it is buying Baldor Electric Company, one of the biggest manufacturers of electric motors out there for $4.2 billion. New efficiency regulations, among other factors, are expected to push the market for high efficiency motors up 10 percent to 15 percent in North America in 2011. Canada, the EU and other jurisdictions may follow with stringent regulations of their own.

Baldor is one of those large companies you've likely never heard of. It employs 7,000 and had an operating profit of $184 million on revenue of $1.29 billion in the first nine months of the year. Motors have also attracted startups like NovaTorque.

ABB, of course, is one of the four horsemen of the grid, with the three others being General Electric, Siemens and Schneider Electric. All four companies have long histories in the utility and industrial equipment market, and all have been showing marked and increasing interest in acquisitions and partnerships. Earlier this year, ABB inked a deal with General Motors to study how to recycle partially depleted lithium-ion battery packs for cars. It also put money into data center management specialist Power Assure.

Elsewhere:

--General Motors will hire 1,000 engineers in the Michigan area over two years to work on EV technologies. Low costs, strong government policies, lots of engineers and empty factory space for miles and miles give the state a number of advantages when it comes to becoming a green hub. VCs have been circling too.

--General Electric has created an internal group that will look at ways to weave together the lights, appliances and other products the company makes into a cohesive solution for consumers. Dave McCalpin will head up the Home Energy Management Group. No word on whether he also wields control over the television and microwave oven programming division.

--Dan Reicher, who spent the last four years speaking on behalf of Google on energy, will now do the same at a new $7 million interdisciplinary department at Stanford that straddles both the law and business schools. Earlier this year, Ed Lu left Google.

--Soitec and Sumitomo announced that they will collaborate on gallium nitride wafers for semiconductors. GaN is the basis of LEDs and lasers and can be used in power electronics.

--Finally, Liviu Mirica at Washington University in St. Louis has been conducting experiments on exploiting palladium (the element, not the two-drink-minimum dance hall) as a catalyst to convert carbon dioxide into fuel. Right now, converting carbon dioxide into a liquid ends up consuming more energy than it produces. The coal-to-liquids process deployed by the Third Reich -- thankfully -- was hobbled by the same problem.

Palladium reduces the energy required for successive hydrocarbon reactions. In the end, you could make a liquid fuel from methane with a relatively low carbon footprint with this process.

If it works, start passing out the Nobel prizes.

光大控股：環保意識增強，利齊合天地(00976-HK)及中金再生(00773-HK)

【大行言論】光大控股：環保意識增強，利齊合天地(00976-HK)及中金再生(00773-HK)
2010/10/21 15:53

財華社香港新聞中心。

光大控股發表研究報告表示，隨著中國對環保意識逐漸增強，將利好齊合天地及中國金屬再生，指齊合天地和中國金屬再生均為中國混合金屬再生商，主要業務均為向海外進口購買廢金屬回收，然後經由加工、拆解及分類為銅、鋼、鋁、鐵等多種終端金屬的原材料。

光大控股指，齊合天地與中金業務最主要的差異在於中國金屬再生沒有鑄造業務，鑄造業務是用再生金屬產品來制造可用於汽車及電子配件等廣泛用途的鋁錠及銅桿銅線，所以在產品組合及多元化的方面，中國金屬再生並沒有優勢。

該行稱，中國金屬再生未來的發展將會著重於進一步開發新業務地區和拓展銷售網絡，如在未來3年投資1億美元建立極為完善的銷售、分銷及物流平台，和收購天津國能資源發展有限公司；同時，今年上半年銷售量(79.6萬噸)已完成全年銷售量目標(145萬噸)約54.9%，進度超前，所以預計全年銷售量將極有可能超過目標。

光大控股稱，齊合天地未來的發展將會著重在於併購、擴大採購網絡、提升現有廠房的加工及生產能力和增建新廠房；就目前的階段而言，寧波加工工廠的年加工產能將會由現時的8萬噸增加至20萬噸。

中國風力發電風車的市佔率分布(表)

財華社香港新聞中心。

大和證券發表研究報告，列出包括龍源電力(0916-HK)旗下國電聯合動力等的中國風力發電風車於2009市佔率分布如下：

排外/公司名稱/中國市佔率。

1./華銳風電/25.3%。
2./金風科技/19.7%(今年6月擱置上市)。
3./東方電氣(1072-HK)/14.7%。
4./國電聯合動力/5.6%(龍源電力附屬)。
5./明陽電氣/5.4%。

6./丹麥Vestas/4.4%。
7./湘電/3.3%。
8./GE/2.3%。
9./印度Suzlon/2.1%。
10./上海電氣(2727-HK)/2%。